We are halfway through May smack dab in the middle of a pandemic and right now, are at a crossroads of sorts: Stay in lockdown or Open up. There are valid arguments on both sides but the biggest issue is the unknowns. There are so many when talking about Covid-19. Here is an incomplete list that I frequently think of:
- How contagious is it
- How long is it alive on surfaces inside, outside, exposed to sun, no sun, etc.
- How far does it travel in the air
- Once infected and recovered, can you get it again
- Will the antibodies stay effective like with chicken pox, or will we need a vaccine shot every year like the flu
- If we continue with measures to flatten the curve, will we extend our economic turmoil to a point where it is not worth it
There are answers to some of these but most are educated guesses, which is really all we can do at this point. Obviously, the more data that we gather, the closer we can get to answering these questions with confidence.
The one amazing data point that really fascinates me is that at least 80% of people infected by Covid are asymptomatic, meaning they pretty much don’t know they have it. If that’s the case, then we’ll never be able to stop the spread unless we can test our entire population at least weekly.
So, knowing all of this, do you stay shut down or do you open back up? Each state is making the choice right now. Some have already opened all the way up, including reopening schools. Others have continued their lockdown and plan on keeping it like that through June. Here in South Carolina, the beaches are packed and restaurants are open, albeit with social distancing restrictions.
It is a tough decision for governors and mayors because nobody knows which way is the right way. For those states that have opened up, I guess we’ll find out in a few weeks by looking at any upticks in hospitalizations and death tolls. Obviously, I’m hoping there is not a big increase anywhere and that will help states that are still in lockdown to decide to start opening back up.
Joe Baker, CFP®
Baker Asset Management, LLC
joebaker@bakerassetmanagement.com
